Competition for water resources during drought in Scotland: Risks and adaptation opportunities

Scotland is often thought of as a ‘water rich’ country. However, water scarcity may become an issue in the near-future, especially for private water supplies and water-dependent industries (e.g., whisky, farming, and hydropower). Scotland has experienced several recent dry years and with climate change, this will become more frequent and severe in years ahead. There is an urgent need for research on climate change related impacts on water resources, including water demand and/or customer usage changes due to climate and demographic change in the UK, and for the creation of a drought forecasting capability for Scotland. This project will improve our understanding of the risks to water resources associated with longer, more frequent intense drought events in Scotland, with a primary focus on competition for water resources between sectors and feasible adaptation measures. The results will contribute to identifying potential adaptation options, considering multi-sectoral trade-offs and synergies.

 This project will assess future drought risks to Scotland’s water resources and water-dependent sectors. This will include a prospective assessment of water resources under a changing climate, and an evaluation of potential increases in competition for water due to changes in use and demand by using a multi-model and multi-scenario simulation approach. This will be achieved through the following objectives: (i) to develop an ensemble of hydrological regime projections for all Scottish catchments using UK and internationally developed state-of-the-art climate projections (UKCP18, CMIP6); (ii) to forecast the evolution of sectoral water demands in Scotland; (iii) using the results from (i) and (ii), to calculate future water balances in Scotland’s main catchments, assessing the sustainability of current and future water demands against available resources, and identifying potential adaptation measures; and (iv) to study the correlation between observed drought impacts and several hydro-climatic indices to contribute to a multi-model drought monitoring and forecasting system for Scotland based on the results from (iii).

 The research will include literature review, data collection and analysis, hydrological modelling, knowledge dissemination, and stakeholder engagement. Distributed hydrological modelling will be used to calculate future flow regimes under different climate projections (UKCP18, CMIP6) in Scotland, focusing on low flow situations. The project will produce sectoral water demand projections for Scotland through engagement with some of the key stakeholders in different water consuming sectors (SEPA, Scottish Water, NFUS, NatureScot), addressing future drought adaptation. The ensembles of future water flows and demands will be used to produce sectoral trade-offs and synergies for a sustainable use of water resources in a drier Scotland. Water balance models will be developed for key catchments to assess the sustainability of water uses, including environmental requirements. The focus will be on drought conditions, although the results will aim to include the whole of the 21st Century climate projections. This will allow to assess composite water related risks like droughts followed by flooding, and vice-versa, as well as to identifying potential sectoral and multi-sectoral adaptation options.

 This studentship will provide the successful applicant with an excellent training opportunity in climate data analysis, stakeholder engagement, drought risk assessment, data handling and analysis, adaptation and resilience planning. The student will have the intellectual freedom to steer the directions of the project. The comprehensive training provided by this project will make the student highly competitive in the job market, with a unique skill set that addresses the urgent need for experts who can navigate the complexities of climate change impacts on water resources and contribute to sustainable solutions.