International COnsulting firm for Development of a Multi-Hazard

The primary objective of this assignment is to design, develop, pilot and verify the forecasts towards operationalizing a MHIBF system for Bhutan. The specific objectives are as follows:

o   To develop a national MHIBF framework aligned with international standards and best practices, incorporating the hazard–exposure–vulnerability–impact (HEVI) approach.

o   To integrate multi-hazard forecasting capabilities by combining meteorological and hydrological hazards—including rainfall, flooding, windstorms, and temperature extremes—into a unified impact-based analytical system.

o   To establish standardized impact thresholds and risk matrices that translate hazard intensities into sector-specific impact levels, enabling consistent and actionable risk interpretation across key sectors.

o   To develop sector-specific impact models and advisory mechanisms for priority sectors such as disaster risk management, transport and infrastructure, agriculture, health, and education, ensuring relevance for decision-making.

o   To design, develop, and operationalize a web-based decision support platform, including data integration, impact computation, visualization dashboards, and advisory generation tools, forecast verification, while strengthening institutional workflows, Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), and technical capacity of national stakeholders for sustained system operation.

Scope of Work

The Firm/Expert Team shall undertake the end-to-end design, development, testing, and operationalization of a MHIBF system for Bhutan. The scope includes analytical framework development, multi-hazard modeling, digital platform development, institutional integration, and capacity building.

3.1  Inception and Diagnostic Assessment

The Firm/Expert Team shall conduct a comprehensive inception and diagnostic assessment to establish the technical and institutional baseline for the MHIBF system. This shall include:

–          Review of existing forecasting systems, tools, methodologies, and operational workflows within National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology

–          Assessment of data availability, quality, accessibility, and interoperability, including hydro-meteorological, geospatial, and sectoral datasets

–          Stakeholder consultations or workshop with key agencies, including DLDGM and sectoral stakeholders on operationalizing MHIBF for Bhutan

–          Identification of institutional, technical, and data gaps, including constraints in translating hazard forecasts into impact-based outputs

3.2  Development of MHIBF Analytical Framework

The Firm/Expert Team shall develop a robust analytical framework based on the Hazard–Exposure–Vulnerability–Impact (HEVI) approach. This shall include:

o   Definition of hazard thresholds for: Rainfall intensity (e.g., return periods, thresholds)

–          Flood levels (river discharge, inundation levels)

–          Wind speeds

–          Temperature extremes for both hot and cold

o   Development of:

–          Standardized exposure datasets (population, infrastructure, agriculture, critical facilities)

–          Proxy-based vulnerability indices tailored to Bhutan’s socio-economic and geographic context

–          Multi-level impact classification system (e.g., minor, moderate, severe, extreme)

o   Development of impact matrices linking hazard intensity with expected sectoral consequences

3.3  3.3 Multi-Hazard and Sectoral Impact Modeling

The Firm/Expert Team shall design and operationalize multi-hazard impact models integrating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability layers. This shall include:

o   Integration of multiple hazard layers into unified forecasting workflows

o   Development of sector-specific impact models for:

–          Disaster Risk Management

–          Transport and Infrastructure

–          Agriculture

–          Health

–          Education

o   Incorporation of:

–          Compound and cascading risk interactions (e.g., rainfall-triggered landslides, flood-induced infrastructure disruption)

–          Scenario-based modeling for different hazard intensities

–          Uncertainty analysis and confidence levels in forecasts

3.4 Development of Web-Based MHIBF Platform

The Firm/Expert Team shall design, develop, and deploy an integrated, user-friendly web-based MHIBF platform. The platform shall include:

 

                                                             3.5 Anticipatory Actions and Advisory Framework

The Firm/Expert Team shall develop a standardized impact-based anticipatory actions and advisory framework. This shall include:

            3.6 Institutional Integration and SOP Development

The Firm/Expert Team shall ensure integration of the MHIBF system into institutional workflows and operational structures. This shall include:

                                                           3.7 Testing, Validation, and Operationalization

The Firm/Expert Team shall conduct and develop a systematic testing and validation of the MHIBF system prior to full deployment. This shall include:

         The Firm/Expert Team shall implement a structured capacity-building programme to ensure sustainability and operational ownership. This shall include:

                                                                  Carry out structured international exposure training programme to be implemented separately in parallel to this assignment (you may quote only institutional/training fee for five to ten days)